Jul 08
Yesterday we saw crude palm oil futures contract breakdown from rising wedge chart pattern in the intraday hourly chart and present to us a good trading opportunity. With yesterday closing price for CPO, we are seeing a breakdown trading signal triggered in the daily chart. Does the FCPO ready to continue its downtrend from here onwards? We still need to have confirmation before we jump in and today’s opening will be a good sign. Could this be an opportunity for us to make some money?
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Authored by Benjamin on 8 July 2008 with 2 comments.
Jul 07
On June 25th, FCPO touched the low of 3,492 points before rebound from the support line drawn from the bearish chart pattern of rising wedge. That amazed me again and again to see how technical analysis is useful and have been a reliable tool to make money from the financial markets. Today we will explore the FCPO to see if there is any short term profitable trade setup for us to make some good money. In this post, I will cover two different time frames for analyzing futures contract for crude palm oil. Bear in mind there are always different market trends that exist at the same moment of time.
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Authored by Benjamin on 7 July 2008 with 2 comments.
Jul 03
As from yesterday Malaysia stock market technical charts, we are having a confirmed lower highs and lower lows in Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI). Malaysia has always been a net exporter of crude oil but recently has to raise its petrol and diesel prices by more than 40% and this causes unhappiness among the already angry citizens on the inability of the government to curb corruption and also the rising costs of living. Recent Malaysia general election on the 8 March 2008 has taken many people by surprises as the country was almost taken over by the opposition coalition party which they called by the name of Pakatan Rakyat. The ruling party Barisan Nasional (National Front) lost its 2/3 majority privilege that they enjoyed for 50 years. On the opening of the stock market on the 10th March, KLCI dropped more than 130 points and triggered its circuit breaker which is 10% for the first time in history. Recently there are many rumours saying that there a number of defections of the Barisan Nasional MPs to the opposition side which could overturn the ruling government any time soon. With political instability and a number of corruption cases that involved billions of dollars, there isn’t much good news ahead for Malaysia. Today the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange (KLSE) suspended it trading due to the computer system down. Let’s take a look at its equity and futures daily charts.
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Authored by Benjamin on 3 July 2008 with 1 comment.
Jul 01
"Wait….. Wait….. Wait….. NOW!" this phrase is often heard in war movies before they strike the enemy. Patience whispers to us to wait for the right moment before striking. Patience continues its echo in nature and also in many aspects of our life too. This is the principles behind many successful people and this is one of the very important traits for investors and traders. It doesn’t matter whether you are investing for the long run or doing short term trading or even day trading, patience is the key to your success. I can’t stress enough on this. Let’s see how we could improve our investing skill and trading timing with patience as one of our virtue.
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Authored by Benjamin on 1 July 2008 with no comment.
Jun 29
On Thursday 26 June 2008, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) crashed and fell almost 360 points after crude oil futures rose sharply passing above $140 level and was told by OPEC president Chakib Khelil that crude oil prices could go up to $170 per barrel this summer. Dow loses extended to Friday when it dropped 106.91 (-0.93%) to close at 11,346.51. DJI lowest level of 11,634 in Jan 2008 was taken out by the bear and we have a confirmation in the bearish trend as in lower highs and lower lows. However the S&P 500 Index have not breach the lowest point but closed right on it. Nasdaq Composite was far from the lowest level but had broken out from the bear flag last week to continue its downtrend movement. Do we still need to question the recession in US economy? Although we have inter-market divergence and can only confirm bearish market trend for the whole of US when the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite break their lowest level in 2008 but I have no doubt that we are already in recession with the credit bubble burst, rising food prices and crude oil prices. The relevant question will be how long will this recession be and where is the next stop for Dow Jones.
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Authored by Benjamin on 29 June 2008 with no comment.
Jun 27
I can’t wait for next week to review Hang Seng Index (HSI) as there were many things happening around the financial globe. June 26 was a brutal day for Dow Jones as it fell almost 360 points in a single day and immediately in June 27 we see the effects on the opening of Asia financial markets. Does this event shock you? Are you holding on to long position on the day before Dow crashed? Actually in my trading calendar, I do mark down June 26-June 30 as a danger zone for potential sudden big market movement. Market outlook during this danger zone period will be erratic as market can rally up or plunge down by a big percentage. If we think that market timing is foolish or near to impossible, then I would say that we lacked the attitude of a student to learn from the market. It is true that a lot of people are still skeptical on some methodologies that some technical analysts are using.
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Authored by Benjamin on 27 June 2008 with 1 comment.
Jun 25
Commodities trading offer lucrative rewards that come with high risks as well. Today we will be looking at Crude Palm Oil (CPO) futures contract or FCPO for short. FCPO is traded in Malaysia derivatives market along with FKLI which is the index futures for KLCI. Contract size will be 25 metric tons with RM 1 price fluctuation per metric ton. At present moment, margin requirement for FCPO is only RM 8,000 per contract and will be revised depending on market fluctuation. We are talking about FCPO now is because we are seeing a potential trade setup forming and a likelihood of trading signal triggering anytime soon. We might be having a breakdown today itself.
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Authored by Benjamin on 25 June 2008 with no comment.
Jun 23
Dow Jones fell 220.40 points (-1.83%) down to 11,842.69 on Friday 20 June 2008 while Nasdaq fell 55.97 points (-2.27%) to 2,406.09 points. Last week was a continuation of the downward movement after a week of short pause for the bear to catch its breath. The Dow has fallen more than 1,300 points since its 61.8% retracement from the previous downtrend leg. The news that we have been hearing all these while were more confused than we were. At one point, we were hearing that the downtrend was over and at another point that the bottom was not even near. We were tossed from the left and to the right by the market news. Are you confused? That’s the market noises you are listening to. Stick your eyeballs to the chart and don’t listen to your neighbors gossiping on stock tips. Let’s look at the chart for clarity.
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Authored by Benjamin on 23 June 2008 with no comment.
Jun 23
Starting from 5 May 2008, Hang Seng Index (HSI) continued the downtrend move that began from 30 Oct 2007 which topped at 31,958.41 and closed at 30,468.33 downed by 1,490.08 points (-4.66%) on the week ended on Nov 2. The amazing thing is that the high on 30 Oct 2007 was right on the Gann fan line drawn from the peak on the week ended on 8 Aug 1997 which is about 10 years ago. Again chart analysis proves that it has been a reliable forecasting tool.
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Authored by Benjamin on 23 June 2008 with no comment.
Jun 19
Let me tell you a bad news. Losses are inevitable. You are sure to loss some amount of money in your trading journey. If you think otherwise, then trading is definitely not suitable for you because 100% profits all the time is an illusion. However, the good news is that we can manage our losses in such as way it will not destroy us. In trading, we often times hear that we should let our winners run and cut our losses quickly. For most of us, we know it in our heads but not in our hearts. We human are creatures of hope and that is the main reason we are able to survive no matter how tough the situation is. However this habit of hoping is not good for trading. That is the main reason why many people are not successful with trading as a profession. Today we will look from the perspective of mathematics and see why we need to cut losses quickly.
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Authored by Benjamin on 19 June 2008 with no comment.
Jun 09
Wall Street plunged 394.64 points (-3.13%) closing at 12209.81 on Friday on 6 June 2008 after oil prices shot up and hit a new high above $139 before closing around $138. There are many questions looming in our head as to where the Dow Jones are heading. Is the worst for Dow Jones over yet? Another question that we are wondering: Are we in recession? Sometimes I wonder why we can’t get a straight answer to such a straight forward question. Well, let us look at it from the perspective of technical analysis.
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Authored by Benjamin on 9 June 2008 with 2 comments.
Jun 07
In the jungle of financial market, one of the compasses to guide us in making trading decision will be the chart. Chart analysis is the heart of technical analysis and it is getting more popular in these days compared to Time and Sales (T/S) as it provides visual perspective to the market action. In this post, we will take a look at various price charts and their characteristics. Basically most price charts contains the following information such as asset name, date and time of transaction, price and volume. Price information can further be divided into opening, high, low and closing prices for the recorded time session. However some chart may not incorporate all the information for their interpretation to filter out market noises.
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Authored by Benjamin on 7 June 2008 with no comment.
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